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Welcome to the new Missouri Valley Conference. Add in U.N.O., Northwest Missouri State, Northern Iowa, and South Dakota State and we've got a pretty good 10 team league.
Let's start with the obvious. If you thought maybe the Big 12 North was on their way to catching up just a little to the South, then you and I were sadly mistaken. Fools we are.
The Colorado Buffaloes entered the weekend with a 1-4 overall record and a 0-1 Big 12 record. And after they dropped the #15 Jayhawks yesterday, they might have become the odds-on favorites to win the Big 12 North overnight (of course, that's a big maybe.) The teams left on their schedule that stand in the way: @ Kansas State, Missouri, Texas A&M, @ Iowa State, @ Oklahoma State, and Nebraska. Tyler Hansen was an obvious upgrade from Cody Hawkins and he's only going to get better each game. In two Big 12 games, the Buffaloes have held Texas to 47 rushing yards and Kansas to -8 rushing yards. I'd hardly want to use the words consistency and Dan Hawkins in the same sentence, but with the way the rest of the division has been playing, you probably won't have to be consistent as long as you win 5 games. That schedule is more than manageable.
Let's be honest here. Kansas' loss to the Buffaloes pretty much disqualifies them from any chance at a North title in '09. The rest of the way they have this: Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas State, Nebraska, @ Texas, and Missouri (K.C.) It's safe to say that 4 wins - or a .500 record in the Big 12 - would be great at this point. You almost want to feel bad for a team that might have had one good run left in them with Reesing, Briscoe, Meier, and Stuckey. Almost, but not quite. Strike up the band and what's left of the student section because basketball season is right around the corner.
Missouri has dug themselves into an 0-2 hole to begin Big 12 play with a home game vs. Texas on deck and a trip to Colorado the following week. And unless Gabby gets a new bionic ankle soon, things aren't going to get any easier for a team that is averaging exactly 3.0 yards/rush in the Big 12. Don't assume this team can win at Kansas State and you definitely can't assume Gabby will be healthy by Kansas at the end of November if he continues to play the entire game and continues to run designed QB option plays. For the Tigers to win the North, they'll have to beat Colorado in Boulder, win out, and hope Nebraska loses 3 more times in conference (assuming of course Texas beats them.) That uphill climb isn't going to be easy on a mangled ankle.
Nebraska doesn't have an identity on offense to speak of right now. However, with Iowa State (a team that is improving weekly) at home and @ Baylor in the next two weeks, you have to begin to think this is an opportune time for Cody Green to step in and spark the offense. Whether you had one beer yesterday or a case by the time it was over, you saw who the better QB is. Zac Lee was a star in the Sun Belt this season and a very below average QB vs. the rest. Whatever 'it' is, he doesn't have it. Change it.
There's nothing to be said about the offensive line other than brutal, just brutal. Our best player on offense in Roy Helu has no chance to do anything. No chance.
By all accounts Shawn Watson is a brilliant offensive mind - as was his buddy Bill Callahan. Designing plays and calling plays is two different entities. (a 9+ minute drive late 3rd Q/early 4th Q down 24-3?) I believe Shawn Watson said at one time Cody Green only knows 40% of the offense. Well, when you only run 10% of it, I'm wondering how much more time he needs. I know there's something in that offensive playbook that will give Green a chance to succeed with his both his arm and legs. This is why Bo Pelini is our head coach. Fix it this week.
As I mentioned, the 1-1 Huskers have Iowa State at home followed by a trip to Waco. For as bad as the offense looks right now, you still have to believe they will get to 3-1. From there, this is what stares at them: Oklahoma, @ Kansas, Kansas State, and @ Colorado. They will have to win 2 of those games for sure to have a chance to play in Dallas. If Zac Lee remains at QB, we won't. There's nothing that you've seen in the first two games of conference play that should make you believe otherwise.
This is what I predicted in early August for the Big 12 North. I stand by it if two things happen: Nebraska changes it's QB and Shawn Watson decides what kind of offense he wants to run and sticks to it. The Husker defense - who held Tech to 259 yards and 24 points - can only carry this team so far.
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It wouldn't surprise me at all if Costello started against UT, effectively ceding that game. Gabbert's ankle is only sprained; he'll recover from it quickly enough. With his canon back and the fleshy part of our schedule remaining (sorry, Colorado's improved but not by that much- new QB or no, this is still a team that lost to a I-AA program), and Kansas looking pretty vulnerable after losing to an only modestly better than godawful Colorado team and nearly losing to a godawful Iowa State, Mizzou's in a great position to sweep the rest of their games and hit 5-3 on the season, which, as you note, should be enough to take the title.